Is there a summer COVID surge? Cases rise in nearly every state
Yes—the U.S. is in the early stages of a covid summer wave. As of mid-August 2026, CDC modeling shows infections growing or likely growing in nearly every state. National activity remains low, but wastewater levels and test positivity are climbing quickly—especially across the South and West ahead of back-to-school season.
Key Takeaways
- CDC estimates as of August 12–19 show COVID transmission rising in 47 to 50 states; Iowa is the only state without a clear trend estimate.
- The South and West lead the wave, with California and Texas among the sharpest increases; experts expect a peak around early September.
- Symptoms mirror familiar omicron strains—cough, sore throat, fatigue, fever—and testing remains essential because they overlap with other viruses.
- The 2026–2027 updated booster targeting the XFG variant is expected in September; high-risk groups should consult providers now.
Why Is COVID Rising During Summer 2026?
After a lull since last winter, COVID-19 has settled into a predictable rhythm: a mid-to-late summer wave and a larger winter surge. Dr. Caitlin Rivers of Johns Hopkins told CNN that "August is solidly Covid season," with Florida, Texas, and Georgia often setting the pace—exactly the pattern emerging now.
On July 22, the CDC estimated growth in 37 states; by August 12, that figure had jumped to 50 states plus Washington, D.C., according to Newsweek. WastewaterSCAN data show SARS-CoV-2 concentrations up 106% in August compared with July, with the West and South reporting the highest levels.
Experts say this wave appears less severe than last year's "Stratus"-fueled surge. Weekly test positivity was nearly 5% for the week ending August 13—roughly half the rate at the same point in 2025. Still, peak vacation travel and millions of children returning to school create fresh opportunities for spread.
Which COVID Symptoms Should You Watch For?
Symptoms of the variants driving this wave resemble other omicron strains and typically appear within two to 14 days of exposure. The CDC lists common signs including cough, sore throat, congestion, fatigue, fever, chills, shortness of breath, headache, nausea, vomiting, and diarrhea.
Because these overlap with flu, RSV, and common colds, testing is critical. If a rapid at-home antigen test is negative, the CDC recommends retesting after 48 hours. Adults over 65, infants, immunocompromised individuals, and those never vaccinated face the highest risk of severe illness.
How Can You Protect Yourself During the Summer Wave?
Dr. Amanda Zink, an emergency physician who helped develop the PopHIVE tracking platform, told CNN that checking local disease trends before travel can guide personal decisions. WastewaterSCAN's Amanda Bidwell treats her site's data like a weather map—masking at concerts or on planes when activity spikes in her Bay Area community.
If you get sick, the CDC recommends staying home and isolating until symptoms improve and you've been fever-free without medication for at least 24 hours. Antivirals like Paxlovid can reduce severity when taken early, though coverage varies. The FDA-approved preventive drug Xocova is available for eligible people 12 and older after close contact with an infected person.
The 2026–2027 COVID vaccine reformulated to target the XFG variant is expected in late September. Under current federal guidance, everyone 6 months and older should discuss vaccination with a healthcare provider. For more health and breaking updates, visit our Celebrity Breaking News hub.
When Will the 2026 COVID Wave Peak?
Michael Hoerger of Tulane University told TODAY.com he expects transmission to peak about a week into September, though regional patterns could shift. Andrew Pekosz of Johns Hopkins told Newsweek the increase is steady rather than dramatic—consistent with COVID's expected seasonal phase rather than a pandemic-scale emergency.
"People should be aware but not alarmed," said UCSF's Peter Chin-Hong. Protecting vulnerable groups—those over 75, pregnant people, the immunocompromised, and very young children—remains the priority as this nationwide trend unfolds.