BTC supply profit eyes 60% as recovery may roll over
Bitcoin's btc supply profit eyes a climb toward 60%, with CryptoQuant data showing supply in profit at 57.5% as of July 22, up from a 2026 low of 46.2%. Analysts caution the rebound may not confirm a new bull market after an earlier false recovery already rolled over in early June.
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin supply in profit rose to 57.5% on July 22 from a 2026 low of 46.2% on June 30, approaching 60%.
- CryptoQuant says a lasting recovery needs supply in profit above 64% and the 30-day SMA of long-term holder SOPR held above 1.
- An April 28–June 1 attempt that reached 67% supply in profit and 35 days of LTH-SOPR above 1 already rolled over.
- The 30-day SMA of LTH-SOPR has stayed below 1 for more than 50 days since that failed breakout.
- Investors are back in aggregate profit, but long-term holder onchain losses still dominate the picture.
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Why does Bitcoin supply profitability matter right now?
Onchain data from CryptoQuant shows Bitcoin (BTC) investors are back in aggregate profit after a sharp rebound from 2026 lows. Supply in profit—the share of Bitcoin worth more than its acquisition price—climbed to 57.5% as of July 22, up from 46.2% on June 30.
That puts the metric close to 60%, a level markets are watching closely. Yet CryptoQuant contributor thechessONCHAIN argues the trend must prove staying power before anyone can call a confirmed market recovery.
What thresholds would confirm a real BTC recovery?
According to the analysis, previous bear markets only ended when two conditions lined up. Total supply in profit should sit above 64%, and the 30-day simple moving average of long-term holder spent output profit ratio (LTH-SOPR) should remain above 1 without slipping for weeks.
Long-term holders are entities whose Bitcoin has stayed dormant for at least six months. SOPR tracks whether those coins move onchain at a profit (above 1) or a loss (below 1). Values below 1 can signal capitulatory selling.
With nearly 60% of BTC supply now in profit, LTH-SOPR is improving—but it has not cleared the confirmation bar. The 30-day SMA of LTH-SOPR has been below 1 for more than 50 days.
Has this recovery setup failed before in 2026?
Yes. CryptoQuant noted one failed attempt already: from April 28 to June 1, the LTH-SOPR average held above 1.0 for 35 days and supply in profit reached 67%. Both metrics then rolled back over at the start of June.
That earlier fake recovery is why analysts warn the current bounce could still reverse. Cointelegraph also reported that Bitcoin supply in loss crossed the 50% mark in June—a threshold that has historically preceded bear-market bottoms—adding another caution flag for bulls.
Demand looks mixed as well, with weak spot-market interest set against a rebound in institutional BTC allocation. Until supply in profit clears 64% and LTH-SOPR holds above 1 for a sustained stretch, the recovery case remains fragile.
Read the full CryptoQuant-based breakdown on Cointelegraph for the charts and methodology behind these onchain levels.