Could the BTC price bull market begin as soon as September?

Bitcoin traders are debating whether the btc price bull market could return as early as September 2026, even as BTC slipped from strengthening $64,000 resistance after the US-Iran war sent prices toward $62,500. Analysts are watching death-cross signals, macro data and Japan stablecoin momentum for clues. The setup arrives as Bitcoin circles its lowest levels since Q3 2024 while multiple indicators flash reversal signals for the first time since late 2022.

Key Takeaways

• Trader Ryker predicts Bitcoin could start surging around September or October, ahead of the widely expected 2027 bull cycle.
• BTC dropped toward $62,500 after failing to break $64,000, leaving the market rangebound between roughly $61,000 and $65,000.
• Iran's Strait of Hormuz closure pushed oil up nearly 12% from July lows, alongside US CPI, PPI and Fed chair Kevin Warsh's testimony.
• SBI VC Trade opens JPYSC lending at 3% yield on July 16, while Lawson and Netstars expand yen stablecoin payments in Japan.
• Mid-sized Bitcoin holders sold a record 67,000 BTC on July 13—a pattern that has historically preceded rebounds.

Could Bitcoin's bear market end by September?

Bitcoin continues to trade near its lowest levels since Q3 2024, but not every analyst expects the slump to last. Trader Ryker argued on X that market makers will front-run consensus, which still points to a 2027 bull-cycle bottom.

Ryker predicted Bitcoin will start surging around September or October, leaving late buyers behind. Multiple indicators now flash reversal signals for the first time since late 2022, though Cointelegraph noted the current bear market may be only about 70% complete.

Trader Jelle highlighted a weekly-chart death cross between the 50- and 100-week simple moving averages. The last such signal appeared in September 2022, just months before the previous bear-market bottom.

Why did BTC fall back from $64,000 resistance?

Bitcoin faced sell pressure after the weekly close, sliding to local lows near $62,500, according to TradingView data cited by Cointelegraph. Repeated attempts to push above $64,000 failed last week, reinforcing that zone as short-term resistance.

Daan Crypto Trades described Bitcoin as rangebound between about $61,000 and $65,000. Lennaert Snyder eyed $63,600 as a short entry, while Jelle still targets a near-term rebound toward $70,000.

For more on how macro shocks hit digital assets, see our Fintech & Crypto Alerts coverage.

What macro risks are pressuring Bitcoin this week?

The US-Iran conflict returned after Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed over the weekend. US WTI crude climbed toward $75 per barrel on Monday, up nearly 12% versus July lows, lifting inflation expectations.

US June CPI and PPI data land this week, with Fed chair Kevin Warsh presenting his semiannual policy report shortly after Tuesday's CPI print. Markets see rates unchanged until September, when CME Group's FedWatch Tool shows majority consensus for a 0.25% hike.

Coin Bureau CEO Nic Puckrin noted US two-year Treasury yields at 16-month highs. Michaël van de Poppe pointed to Japanese bond yields rather than Middle East headlines as the bigger near-term Bitcoin driver.

How is Japan expanding stablecoin use beyond trading?

Japan's regulated stablecoin market is adding real-world rails. SBI VC Trade will begin accepting JPYSC lending applications Thursday at an initial 3% annualized rate over 12 weeks. The product is not deposit-insured and cannot generally be canceled early.

Lawson plans an August trial of yen stablecoin payments at a Tokyo store through HashPort's wallet. Netstars launched Stablecoin Pay on Monday, supporting USDC, USDT and JPYC on Solana and Polygon with a 0.98% merchant fee.

Do midsize holder sales signal a BTC rebound?

CryptoQuant data shows wallets holding 100 to 1,000 BTC distributed about 67,000 BTC on July 13—the cohort's strongest selling since February 19. Analyst Amr Taha noted similar distribution preceded rebounds earlier this year.

Exchange inflows to Binance and Coinbase Prime cooled in mid-July. Profit-taking by short-term holders near $64,000 was described as characteristic of bull-market behavior, adding to mixed signals before a full btc price bull market can be confirmed.