Brady Singer vs Luzardo: Phillies favored in July 9 finale
The Philadelphia Phillies are favored to beat the Cincinnati Reds on July 9, 2026, largely because Jesus Luzardo (7-4, 3.75 ERA) opposes struggling Reds starter Brady Singer (3-8, 5.03 ERA). After Cincinnati's 11-5 slugfest tied the series, NBC Sports Bet recommends Phillies moneyline, Phillies -1.5, and Under 9.5 at Great American Ball Park.
Key Takeaways
- Brady Singer enters at 5.03 ERA with Cincinnati winning just one of his last 11 starts, per Redleg Nation.
- Philadelphia is -162 on the moneyline with a 9.5-run total, according to NBC Sports.
- Jesus Luzardo has a 3.75 ERA and the Phillies have won 11 of his last 13 starts.
- Cincinnati tied the series with an 11-5 win featuring four home runs, including two from Sal Stewart.
- NBC Sports Bet likes Phillies ML, Phillies -1.5, and the Under 9.5.
Why does Brady Singer matter in this series finale?
Brady Singer takes the mound for Cincinnati with the series tied 1-1 after the first two games, Redleg Nation reported. Singer has pitched 82.1 innings with a 5.03 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 71 strikeouts and 30 walks in 2026, per NBC Sports.
Redleg Nation noted Singer has battled injuries and inconsistency, walking five batters in his last start against Baltimore. Cincinnati has won only one of his last 11 starts, though Singer carries a 3.29 ERA at home with a .794 OPS against at Great American Ball Park.
Left-handed hitters have hit .300 with a .548 slugging percentage against Singer this season, according to Redleg Nation splits data — a concern against Kyle Schwarber, who entered the series leading the majors in home runs per MLB.com.
What do the betting odds and trends show?
NBC Sports listed Thursday's lines as Phillies -162, Reds +134, Phillies -1.5 (-103), Reds +1.5 (-117), and a total of 9.5 runs. The Reds are 48-43 against the spread while Philadelphia is an MLB-worst 35-58 ATS, including 18-29 on the road.
Cincinnati ranks fifth in overs (52-38-1) while Philadelphia leans under (48-40-5). The Reds offense sits 29th with a .228 batting average and is 3-7 in its last 10 games, NBC Sports noted. Philadelphia is 3-4 in July with a 6.75 ERA as opponents hit .307.
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Which bets do experts recommend for July 9?
NBC Sports Bet's model recommends three plays: Phillies moneyline, Phillies -1.5 against the spread, and Under 9.5 on the game total. The pitching gap drives that logic — Luzardo has 103.1 innings, 125 strikeouts and a 1.27 WHIP compared with Singer's 82.1 innings and 1.54 WHIP.
Redleg Nation highlighted Luzardo's dominance against lefties (.182 average, .222 slugging) and noted Philadelphia has won 11 of his last 13 starts. Luzardo allowed one run with nine strikeouts over six innings in Kansas City in his previous outing.
First pitch is 7:10 p.m. ET at Great American Ball Park, with a forecast of 85 degrees and cloudy skies, per Redleg Nation. Full odds and analysis are available from NBC Sports.