Bitcoin treasuries may struggle to match Strategy, Ammous says
Bitcoin treasuries may struggle to match Michael Saylor’s Strategy, economist Saifedean Ammous said, arguing the firm’s scale and cash reserves leave rivals without a compelling case. Strategy holds 847,666 BTC and a $5.02 billion dollar reserve, giving it cheaper borrowing and a cushion against drawdowns, per its latest 8-K filing.
Key Takeaways
- Ammous sees little reason to pick another Bitcoin treasury firm over Strategy.
- Strategy reported 847,666 BTC bought for $63.95 billion plus a $5.02 billion USD cash reserve.
- Larger holdings help Strategy borrow more cheaply and weather drawdowns, he argued.
- He still favors holding Bitcoin directly and treats Strategy stock as risky.
- His rough 2030 Bitcoin guess is about $200,000, near the low end of a power-law model.
The remarks came on Cointelegraph’s Proof of Thesis podcast and land as corporate Bitcoin balance-sheet strategies stay in the spotlight across Fintech & Crypto Alerts coverage. Ammous, author of The Bitcoin Standard, framed Strategy’s lead as structural rather than temporary hype.
Why might other Bitcoin treasury companies fall short?
“I don’t see a compelling case for going to another Bitcoin treasury company other than Michael Saylor’s Strategy,” Ammous said. He pointed to Strategy’s world-leading corporate Bitcoin stash—847,666 BTC acquired for $63.95 billion, according to its Monday 8-K—and to the $5.02 billion US dollar reserve set aside for preferred-stock dividends and debt interest.
That scale, he argued, lets Strategy borrow at lower rates than smaller treasury peers. Prior Bitcoin drawdowns, in his view, never pushed the company close to liquidation. For investors comparing pure-play treasuries, that mix of size and cash is the hard-to-copy edge.
How did Strategy shore up its financing this summer?
Strategy’s model drew scrutiny when Bitcoin slipped below $60,000 and its STRC preferred stock traded well under a $100 target price. Management raised STRC’s annual dividend rate to 12%, repurchased shares, and built the cash reserve. It also sold some Bitcoin to help fund dividends and STRC buybacks before returning to accumulation.
“Even a much bigger Bitcoin drawdown is going to leave them in a decent situation because they have enough cash on hand to make their payments,” Ammous said. That liquidity cushion is exactly what panelists at CONNECT Seoul also stressed for treasury strategies: excess cash must be money a firm can lock up without disrupting day-to-day operations.
Should businesses still put surplus cash into Bitcoin?
Yes—for operating companies with positive cash flow, Ammous expects more firms to park surplus in Bitcoin as a long-term reserve. “I think pretty much every business should be doing this,” he said, while separating that reserve from cash needed for daily, weekly, and monthly operations.
He still cautioned that buying Strategy shares is not the same as holding Bitcoin. Ammous said he prefers Bitcoin directly because an equity stake in a treasury vehicle carries its own risks. Readers following the debate can review the full interview on Cointelegraph.
Where does Ammous see Bitcoin’s next peak?
Ammous said Bitcoin has probably already bottomed, though another crash could still push prices lower. He expects the next cycle to peak around 2029, with prices predominantly rising until then, and smaller drawdowns potentially easing concerns for large asset managers.
Asked for a 2030 price guess, he pointed to roughly $200,000 near the lower end of a Bitcoin power-law model—then added, “I wouldn’t bet on it.” Separately on Friday, Bitcoin traded toward the mid-$86,000s and tested October highs near $87,000 as short liquidations topped $120 million, underscoring how quickly treasury valuations can swing with spot BTC.