Bitcoin nearing late bear market stages, Real Vision says
Real Vision chief crypto analyst Jamie Coutts says Bitcoin is nearing late stages of its current bear market, with downside momentum slowing even though the downturn is not over yet. He told Cointelegraph that BTC may be entering the second half of a typical garden-variety bear cycle. Bitcoin was trading around $63,000 at the time of the interview—roughly half its October 2025 record—and Coutts pointed to early signs that selling pressure may be easing on longer timeframes.
Key Takeaways
- Jamie Coutts believes Bitcoin is approaching the second half of its bear market, though trend indicators remain bearish.
- BTC trades near $63,000, about 50% below its $126,100 all-time high, with volatility roughly halved versus past bear cycles.
- Coutts sees bullish momentum divergence on longer charts, suggesting negative momentum is decelerating.
- He forecasts Bitcoin could reach $200,000–$250,000 within two to three years, but says a $1 million by 2030 call is premature.
- Despite early technical relief, Coutts warns the bear market is not technically over and markets rarely follow neat historical patterns.
What did Jamie Coutts say about Bitcoin's bear market?
Jamie Coutts, chief crypto analyst at Real Vision, told Cointelegraph's Trade Secrets that Bitcoin appears to be moving through most of its bear-market action. "I think we're getting through most of the bear market action. It's still not over, clearly. But you know, I think we're approaching at least the second half," he said.
Coutts characterized the current phase as a typical garden-variety bear market. Bitcoin was trading around the $63,000 mark at the time of the interview—roughly 50% below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,100. He also noted that Bitcoin's volatility has declined by about 50% compared with previous bear markets, suggesting this downturn may prove less severe than prior cycles.
Still, Coutts cautioned that markets rarely follow historical patterns neatly. "They just sort of do their own thing. And at the moment, all the trend indicators are obviously bearish," he said. For more crypto market analysis, see our Fintech & Crypto Alerts coverage.
Why does Coutts think selling pressure may be easing?
Despite broadly bearish trend signals, Coutts said he is beginning to see early technical signs that selling pressure is easing. "I'm starting to see a bullish divergence appear on the longer time frames on momentum," he explained. That pattern suggests negative momentum is decelerating—even if Bitcoin has not technically exited the bear market.
Coutts was clear that decelerating downside momentum is not the same as a confirmed reversal. "That doesn't mean that we're out of this bear market from a technical perspective at all," he said. The comments reflect a shift in pace rather than a finished cycle, leaving room for further consolidation or additional downside before a sustained uptrend takes hold.
What is Coutts's Bitcoin price forecast for the next few years?
When asked about Cathie Wood's projection that Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2030, Coutts said it is far too early to make that call with confidence. He is more comfortable with a nearer-term outlook.
"I'm more comfortable with a forecast in the next sort of two to three years that Bitcoin should get to sort of $200,000 to $250,000," Coutts said. Beyond that window, he added, it is "very hard to say," since longer-range outcomes depend on variables that are difficult to model today.
Is the bear market over yet?
According to Coutts, the answer is no—at least not from a technical standpoint. While Bitcoin may be nearing late stages of the downturn, he emphasized that trend indicators remain bearish and that historical bear-market templates only offer a rough guide.
His framework treats the current setup as a maturing bear phase rather than a confirmed bottom. Traders and long-term holders alike will be watching whether momentum divergences translate into higher highs—or whether renewed selling keeps BTC under pressure near current levels.
Read the full interview at Cointelegraph.