Bitcoin bear market will bottom when RSI hits zero, trader says
A crypto trader predicts the bitcoin bear market will bottom when Bitcoin's two-month Relative Strength Index (RSI) reaches zero—a threshold that has marked prior cycle lows. Analysts say BTC's RSI is mirroring historical bear-market patterns, while US spot Bitcoin ETFs just posted $424.66 million in single-day outflows, underscoring fragile sentiment.
The call comes as Bitcoin's long-term momentum gauge continues to echo the structure of previous downturns. According to reporting from Cointelegraph, the trader argued that the same historical price-bottom signals that appeared in earlier bear cycles are likely to repeat in 2026.
Key Takeaways
- A trader predicts the bitcoin bear market will end when the two-month RSI hits zero, a level tied to past cycle lows.
- Bitcoin's RSI is currently tracking patterns seen in previous bear markets, reinforcing the historical comparison.
- US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $424.66 million in outflows on their largest single-day exit in July, reversing a brief return to positive weekly flows.
- The forecast points to 2026 as the window when familiar bottoming signals may reappear.
What is the two-month RSI telling Bitcoin traders?
Relative Strength Index measures whether an asset is overbought or oversold over a set period. In this case, traders are watching a two-month RSI—a longer timeframe that smooths out short-term noise and highlights macro momentum shifts.
When that gauge approaches zero, it signals extreme selling pressure relative to recent history. The trader cited by Cointelegraph pointed to that level as the line where prior Bitcoin bear markets have historically found their floors.
The current read is what matters for market watchers: Bitcoin's RSI is continuing to copy the trajectory of previous bear cycles rather than breaking into uncharted territory. That pattern gives the prediction its weight—it rests on repeated behavior, not a one-off anomaly.
Why does this trader think the bitcoin bear market will bottom in 2026?
The forecast is rooted in cycle timing. Previous Bitcoin bear markets have produced recognizable bottoming signatures on long-term indicators, and the trader expects those same signatures to surface again in 2026.
That does not mean a precise date is locked in. Rather, the argument is that once the two-month RSI compresses toward zero, the market will have exhausted the kind of sustained selling that defines a full bear cycle. Traders who follow this framework treat the RSI threshold as a confirmation tool—not a standalone buy signal.
For investors tracking macro crypto trends, the 2026 window adds a concrete timeline to watch alongside price action and on-chain data. More coverage of these signals is available in our Fintech & Crypto Alerts section.
How are US spot Bitcoin ETFs reacting to the downturn?
Institutional sentiment adds another layer to the bear-market picture. US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $424.66 million leave the funds in a single day—the largest daily outflow recorded in July, according to Cointelegraph.
That withdrawal reversed a brief rebound that had pushed weekly flows back into positive territory. The whipsaw pattern suggests institutional buyers remain cautious even during short-lived recoveries, and that capital is still flowing out of regulated BTC products at scale.
ETF flows do not directly validate or invalidate the RSI bottom call, but they do reflect the same hesitant mood that long-term indicators are capturing. Until inflows stabilize, the bear-market narrative is likely to stay front and center for both retail and institutional participants.
What should investors watch next?
The two-month RSI trajectory will be the primary gauge for anyone tracking this prediction. A continued slide toward zero would align with the trader's historical template; a reversal before that level would suggest this cycle may differ.
Parallel signals worth monitoring include daily and weekly ETF flow data, which offer a real-time read on institutional appetite. Together, these metrics paint a fuller picture of where Bitcoin sits within its broader market cycle—and whether 2026 brings the bottom the trader expects.