Bitcoin bear market over as CryptoQuant metric mirrors 2023
According to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, the bitcoin bear market over debate may be settled: the firm's Bull/Bear Market Cycle Indicator flipped positive for the first time since October 2025. The 0.042 reading mirrors the early 2023 recovery signal, suggesting Bitcoin's 2026 downtrend has ended—though liquidity concerns persist.
Ki flagged the shift in an X post on Wednesday, writing that "the Bitcoin bear cycle is over." The call follows months of pressure on BTC/USD, which hit a cycle low near $60,000 on Feb. 5 before stabilizing. For investors tracking Fintech & Crypto Alerts, the signal adds fresh fuel to a recovery narrative that has been building across onchain and technical indicators.
Key Takeaways
- CryptoQuant's Bull/Bear Market Cycle Indicator posted its first positive reading since early October 2025, at 0.042 as of Aug. 26.
- The metric draws on MVRV, NUPL, and SOPR profitability data and previously flagged the end of the last bear market in early 2023.
- Cycle lows registered -1.244 on Feb. 5 when Bitcoin fell to about $60,000, marking "extreme bear" conditions.
- Not all market participants agree the macro downtrend is finished, citing thin liquidity and resistance above spot price.
- RSI and other indicators have also turned bullish in recent weeks, echoing patterns seen at the end of 2022.
What triggered the bitcoin bear market over signal?
The reversal centers on CryptoQuant's Bull/Bear Market Cycle Indicator, derived from the platform's P&L Index. That index measures the distance between composite profitability metrics and their 365-day moving average.
Values above zero place the indicator in its "bull" bracket, while negative readings signal bear phases. After ten months in negative territory, the Aug. 26 print of 0.042 crossed into positive ground for the first time since October 2025.
Ki Young Ju tied the shift directly to improving investor profitability across the network. The last comparable flip occurred at the start of 2023, when Bitcoin began climbing out of its previous extended downturn.
How does CryptoQuant's Bull/Bear indicator work?
The P&L Index behind the indicator blends three onchain profitability measures: the market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio, net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL), and the spent output profit ratio (SOPR). Together they capture both realized and unrealized gains and losses across Bitcoin holders.
When the combined reading pulls above its 365-day average, the Bull/Bear indicator turns positive. CryptoQuant's head of research originally devised the P&L Index, and historical data shows the tool has tracked macro BTC trend changes with notable accuracy.
At the February trough, the indicator hit -1.244—deep into extreme bear territory—as spot prices slid toward $60,000. The climb back to 0.042 represents a full bracket shift within roughly six months.
Why are analysts still skeptical about Bitcoin's recovery?
Despite Ki's declaration, consensus is far from unanimous. Cointelegraph previously reported that insufficient demand and stacked liquidity hurdles above current prices could push BTC/USD back toward downside.
Trader and analyst Rekt Capital has argued the August monthly close will be pivotal, pointing to a downward-sloping resistance trend line in place since October 2025. A clean breakout would strengthen the bull case; failure could stall the recovery.
Other indicators, including a recovering relative strength index (RSI), echo late-2022 conditions that preceded the last major upswing. Even so, market participants warn that onchain bullishness alone may not sustain a macro trend change without deeper liquidity support.