Bitcoin bear market dead after first TD9 signal since 2022
Bitcoin has perfected its first TD9 buy setup on monthly charts since July 2022, reviving debate over whether the bitcoin bear market is dead. Analyst Tony Severino flagged the Tom DeMark Sequential signal on Tuesday, marking the first such monthly downtrend reversal since the prior July 2022 setup. The indicator points to trend exhaustion, but it is not a standalone buy signal—and BTC spent five more months consolidating after the last TD9 in 2022.
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin recorded its first perfected TD9 downtrend reversal on monthly time frames since July 2022.
- The Tom DeMark Sequential derivative fires when nine consecutive candles close lower than the price four bars earlier.
- Analysts caution a completed TD9 does not guarantee the bear-market bottom is in place.
- RSI bullish divergences across multiple time frames are reinforcing calls for a trend change.
- Many traders still expect new macro lows near $55,000 before a durable reversal.
What is the TD9 indicator and why did it just fire?
Bitcoin (BTC) delivered a key trend-change setup this week, the latest sign that its macro downtrend could soon reverse. In an X post on Tuesday, analyst Tony Severino highlighted a perfected buy signal on the TD9 indicator using TradingView data.
TD9 is a derivative of the Tom DeMark Sequential market-timing tool, which alerts traders to potential trend shifts. A notable signal triggers when nine candles in a row close higher in an uptrend—or lower in a downtrend—than the closing price four candles prior.
"Bitcoin has perfected a TD9 buy setup on the monthly," Severino wrote. The setup is BTC's first on monthly charts in several years; the prior TD9 downtrend signal appeared in July 2022.
Does a perfected TD9 mean the bitcoin bear market is dead?
Not necessarily. Severino noted that a completed TD9 setup does not mean the bottom is in. After the July 2022 signal, BTC/USD spent another five months ironing out its bear-market low before a sustained recovery took hold.
Tony Carrera, host of the Proof of Pain podcast, echoed that caution on X: "Not a buy signal by itself. But if it holds into the close, it's the kind of thing you pay attention to."
Consensus among market participants still favors new macro lows before the bear market truly reverses. Targets near $55,000 are widely discussed, while cycle comparisons suggest the current downturn is just over two-thirds complete.
What else are traders watching alongside the TD9 setup?
Bullish divergences across multiple time frames are building on the relative strength index (RSI)—a classic hint that a trend change may be due. Trader and analyst Scott Melker told X followers Wednesday that he had rarely seen more confirmed and potential bullish RSI divergence with oversold readings across so many time frames.
Those signals align with broader bottom-hunting across crypto markets. For ongoing coverage of price action, regulation, and institutional flows, see our Fintech & Crypto Alerts hub.
Could Bitcoin still hit new lows before reversing?
Many analysts think so. As Cointelegraph reported, the TD9 milestone mirrors the final stages of the 2022 BTC downtrend—but history shows signals and timing rarely line up perfectly.
With traders still eyeing fresh macro lows before a durable reversal, the perfected TD9 is a watchlist item, not a verdict. Whether the bitcoin bear market is truly dead will depend on whether price can hold above key support through the monthly close and beyond.