Can Bill Ackman keep beating the S&P after a 15.9% run?
Bill Ackman's Pershing Square has compounded at about 15.9% annually since 2004—more than five points ahead of the S&P 500. Whether that edge continues hinges on AI-driven tech holdings like Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and Uber delivering durable profits, not just spending.
Key Takeaways
- Through the end of 2025, Pershing Square's annualized return since 2004 was 15.9%, versus 10.7% for the S&P 500.
- A hypothetical $1,000 stake at launch would be worth roughly $26,000 by August 2026, versus about $11,000 in the index.
- Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, and Uber made up most of the firm's $13.7 billion portfolio in its first-quarter 13F filing.
- Ackman later exited Alphabet, cut Amazon by 25%, and added to Microsoft and Meta while leaning into AI-linked growth.
- The main risk is that heavy AI infrastructure spending fails to turn into durable profit growth.
What has Bill Ackman's Pershing Square actually returned?
Through year-end 2025, Pershing Square compounded at 15.9% a year since 2004, beating the S&P 500's 10.7% comparable gain. Related fund disclosures put a $1,000 stake at launch near $26,000 by August 2026—about 15.6% annualized—versus roughly $11,000 for the S&P 500.
Ackman's approach is concentrated: buy high-quality businesses with dependable cash flows and limited risk of permanent capital loss. As an activist, he has also taken large stakes and pushed for change, with past wins including Canadian Pacific, Chipotle, and General Growth Properties.
Why is Bill Ackman leaning into AI and megacap tech?
Over the past year the firm almost entirely exited Alphabet and started positions in Meta Platforms, Amazon, and Microsoft, while keeping a core Uber stake. Those four names comprised the majority of the $13.7 billion portfolio in the first-quarter 13F.
Momentum looks supportive. Meta's trailing-12-month revenue rose 28% year over year, aided by AI-driven ad targeting, with a forward P/E near 19. Amazon's trailing revenue growth accelerated to 16%, helped by AI-related cloud demand. Microsoft closed fiscal 2026 with revenue up 18% on productivity software and Azure. Uber's last-quarter gross bookings rose 24%, with adjusted earnings up 35%.
In a later quarter, Ackman finished selling Alphabet, trimmed Amazon by 25%, and increased Microsoft by nearly 10% while adding to Meta—moves that kept the book tilted toward AI winners. For more on how AI is reshaping big tech, see our Future Tech & AI Wonders coverage.
Can Pershing Square keep beating the market?
Analysts expect earnings growth from about 16% annually at Microsoft to roughly 32% at Uber. If valuations hold near current levels, those stocks could largely track earnings over time. Other holdings such as Hertz, Howard Hughes, and Restaurant Brands are more tied to consumer health and the broader economy.
The decisive caveat is AI payback: if infrastructure spending does not produce lasting profits, the tech-heavy book could stall. With operating momentum, reasonable valuations, and solid earnings expectations, sources argue Pershing Square still looks positioned to extend its run—but that outcome is not guaranteed.