Bekzat Almakhan vs Jean Matsumoto: UFC Baku odds and pick
DIRECT ANSWER: Jean Matsumoto is the betting favorite over Bekzat Almakhan at UFC Baku on June 27, 2026, with odds around -155 to -165 versus roughly +130 to +135 for the Kazakh finisher. Analysts lean Matsumoto by decision, citing grappling depth and experience against elite bantamweights, though Almakhan's knockout power keeps the underdog live early.
Key Takeaways
- Matsumoto enters at 17-2; Almakhan is 12-3 with 10 career knockouts.
- Both fighters are coming off losses in their most recent UFC outings.
- Consensus pick: Matsumoto on the moneyline, with the fight likely going past 2.5 rounds.
- The bout is part of UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs Torres at Baku's National Gymnastics Arena.
- Almakhan's 64-second KO of Brad Katona remains his signature UFC moment.
Bekzat Almakhan and Jean Matsumoto collide on the UFC Baku card Saturday, June 27, at the National Gymnastics Arena in Azerbaijan. The bantamweight pairing lands on a loaded international fight night headlined by Rafael Fiziev vs Manuel Torres — a card that has drawn plenty of buzz in our Bizarre News & Florida Man feed for its mix of regional favorites and wild finishes.
Who is favored in the betting odds?
Books have installed Matsumoto as the clear favorite. BetMGM lists Jean Matsumoto at -165 and Bekzat Almakhan at +135. ClutchPoints cites DraftKings lines of Matsumoto -155 and Almakhan +130, with Over 2.5 rounds priced at -220 and Under 2.5 at +170.
Both sources agree the market sees Matsumoto's well-rounded game as the safer play. Almakhan's plus-money price reflects his one-shot knockout threat rather than a full three-round track record inside the Octagon.
What do the fighters bring into the cage?
Almakhan, 28, stands 5-foot-7 with a 68-inch reach and a 12-3 record built on Karate-based striking. BetMGM notes a 92% finishing rate; ClutchPoints counts 10 knockouts among his 12 wins. His UFC highlight remains a 64-second uppercut KO of Brad Katona at UFC 315 in May 2025.
Matsumoto, 26, is 17-2 with a Muay Thai base and black-belt jiu-jitsu credentials per BetMGM. He averages 3.00 takedowns per 15 minutes at 48% accuracy, per ClutchPoints, and carries six submission wins on his resume. His last three UFC fights all went to split decisions — a win over Miles Johns and losses to Rob Font and Farid Basharat.
What are the expert predictions?
BetMGM analyst Anatoly Pimentel picks Matsumoto by decision, arguing quick leg kicks will compromise Almakhan's wide Karate stance and that Matsumoto can exploit takedown openings Almakhan struggled to defend against Aleksandre Topuria.
ClutchPoints projects Matsumoto (-155) with Over 2.5 rounds (-220), framing it as a striker-versus-grappler chess match. Almakhan's early explosiveness could end it fast, but Matsumoto's composure and ground game are expected to carry the later frames if he survives the opening minutes.
When and where does UFC Baku air?
Per UFC.com's live results hub, prelims begin at 9 a.m. ET / 6 a.m. PT, with the main card at noon ET / 9 a.m. PT on Paramount+. Almakhan vs Matsumoto is scheduled on the preliminary portion of the card alongside other bantamweight and regional matchups building toward the Fiziev-Torres main event.