Every bear market ends in a longer bull run, history shows

Every bear market in U.S. history shares one trait: each has been followed by a longer bull market. The Motley Fool notes that since the S&P 500 launched in 1957, stocks spent roughly 57 years rising versus about 12 in bears—and subsequent bull runs typically return at least double what the prior downturn erased. That pattern is why analysts call the shared trait fantastic news for long-term investors, even when warning signs flash today.

Investors are nervous heading into late August 2026. The Buffett Indicator, named for Berkshire Hathaway's Warren Buffett, suggests the market is historically overvalued. The American Association of Individual Investors reports that 44.4% of individual investors expect a bear market within six months, versus 32.9% predicting a bull market—a 4.5 percentage-point jump in bearish sentiment in just one week.

Yet history offers a counterweight to that anxiety. Whether the next downturn arrives soon or not, the record shows bear markets have always been temporary chapters in a longer upward story.

Key Takeaways

• Every U.S. bear market on record has been followed by a longer bull market that more than recovered prior losses.
• Since 1957, the S&P 500 has spent about 57 years in bull markets compared with roughly 12 years in bears.
• Of 13 bull markets since 1957, all but one returned at least 1.9 times the preceding bear market's losses.
• Staying fully invested through downturns matters because early bull-market gains are historically the strongest—and timing the bottom is nearly impossible.
• Defensive names like Cboe Global Markets, Kroger, and Southern Company have often risen on the S&P 500's worst days over the past three years.

What counts as a bear market?

A bear market is generally defined as a drop of more than 20% in a broad-market index such as the S&P 500, the benchmark most commonly used to gauge U.S. stock health. Corrections of 10% to 20% are painful but do not meet the formal threshold.

The worst examples in modern history illustrate how severe bears can get. The Great Recession produced the steepest decline on record—a 56.8% peak-to-trough fall. The dot-com bust produced the longest, lasting 31 months from March 2000 through September 2002.

By Hartford Funds data cited by The Motley Fool, the average of 27 bear markets since 1929 dragged the S&P 500 down 35.2% over 289 calendar days. Charles Schwab, using CFRA data, puts the average duration of the last 12 bears at about 14 months. Bear markets arrive roughly every three to four years—uncomfortable, but normal.

Why are bull markets longer than bear markets?

The shared trait across every U.S. bear market is what comes next: a longer bull run. The dot-com bear's 31-month slide was followed by a 60-month bull market lasting until October 2007. The Great Recession's 17-month bear, which ended in March 2009, preceded the longest bull market in history—nearly 11 years—until the one-month COVID-19 bear of February 2020.

By definition, every bull market that follows a bear must exceed the prior losses just to break even. In practice, the upside has been far larger. Of the 13 bull markets since the S&P 500's 1957 inception, only the 1966–1968 rally returned less than 1.9 times the preceding bear's losses.

Some recoveries were extraordinary. The 1982–1987 bull market returned nine times the losses of the 1980–1982 bear. The 1990–2000 bull returned 21 times the 1990 bear's drawdown. Investors who kept money in the S&P 500 through every bear market on record have always recouped their losses and usually posted substantial gains once the rebound took hold.

What should investors do during a bear market?

The single most important rule, according to Motley Fool analyst James Brumley, is to be fully invested when the bear ends. The problem is that nobody knows when that moment arrives. Every bear market so far has eventually ended and preceded new highs—and the next one likely will too.

That is why market timing is a losing bet for most people. Hartford data shows that over the past 20 years, more than one-third of the S&P 500's biggest single-day gains occurred during just the first two months of a new bull market. The index's average gain in the first month of a fresh bull run is 13.6%; over the first three months, it is 25.3%.

In nearly three-fourths of the 27 bull markets since 1929, the S&P 500 performed better in the first half of the rally than in the second. Missing those early surges while waiting for clarity can cost more than riding out the decline. Patience through the pain is not optimism—it is playing the historical odds. For broader strategies on building wealth through downturns, see our Wealth Hacks & Passive Income hub.

Which stocks hold up when the market struggles?

Not every stock falls equally during turbulence. Last week, the S&P 500 lost 1.4% as Treasury bond yields climbed. Despite Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's debt buyback announcement, investors remained on edge over rising national debt and yields.

CNBC Pro screened the past three years of trading to find stocks that tended to finish positive on the index's worst days. The screen filtered for names that rose at least 50% of the time during sharp S&P 500 declines, posted positive average and median returns on those sessions, and carried at least 5% upside to consensus analyst price targets, per CNBC and FactSet data.

Cboe Global Markets, an exchange operator that benefits from elevated trading volumes during volatility, finished higher on 75% of the S&P 500's sharpest down days. Shares have climbed nearly 20% in 2026, on track for a fourth consecutive winning year, with analysts projecting roughly 6% additional upside.

Kroger rose on nearly 70% of those difficult sessions. Despite falling more than 7% in 2026—on pace for its first losing year in four—Wall Street consensus targets imply more than 26% upside ahead. Southern Company gained in 63% of down sessions and posted the highest median gain among screened peers; analysts see nearly 10% upside over the next 12 months despite the utility's 2% year-to-date return lagging the S&P 500's 12% advance.

Other names meeting the screen included Cigna, Dollar General, Duke Energy, and Coca-Cola. These are not guarantees against future losses, but they illustrate that defensive positioning can coexist with a stay-the-course long-term strategy.

What does history mean for investors today?

Warning indicators are flashing, and sentiment has turned sharply bearish. That does not change the historical record: bear markets are comparatively short, bull markets are longer, and the gains on the other side have consistently dwarfed the pain.

The Motley Fool's John Bromels puts it plainly—if a bear market arrives, history says it will likely be relatively short-lived, and patient investors who remain in quality holdings have always come out ahead. The full analysis is available at Yahoo Finance. The lesson is not to ignore risk, but to respect a pattern that has held across every downturn in U.S. market history.