Asu Almabayev vs Charles Johnson: UFC Baku picks and odds
Asu Almabayev is the betting favorite against Charles Johnson at UFC Baku on Saturday, June 27, with odds near -258, but analyst Dan Tom is backing Johnson as a live upset at plus money. The flyweights collide on the UFC Fight Night 280 main card in Azerbaijan with title-race implications for both men.
Key Takeaways
- Asu Almabayev enters at -258 while Charles Johnson sits at +210 ahead of UFC Fight Night 280 in Baku.
- Analyst Dan Tom picks Johnson for the upset, including a Round 2 knockout projection in one preview.
- Johnson faces his first top-10 opponent and wants to rebound from a January KO loss to Alex Perez.
- The bout streams on Paramount+ with an expected cage walk near 1:10 to 1:15 p.m. ET.
- Almabayev returns from a hand injury; Johnson arrives off a split-decision win over Bruno Silva.
Who is favored in Almabayev vs Johnson at UFC Baku?
The oddsmakers and betting public favor Kazakhstan's Asu Almabayev. Action Network lists him at -258 with Johnson at +210, while Central Oregon Daily cites FanDuel lines of Almabayev -260 and Johnson +205. The over/under sits at 2.5 rounds (-260/+195) per Action Network, suggesting books expect a relatively quick finish.
Almabayev (23-3) enters his first bout of 2026 after back-to-back wins over Jose Ochoa and Alex Perez, including a comeback victory over Perez last year. A hand injury forced him to withdraw from an earlier scheduled 2026 fight. Johnson (19-8) is keeping his usual busy pace, returning after a split-decision win over Bruno Silva in March.
Why are analysts picking Charles Johnson as the upset?
Despite Almabayev's wrestling credentials, Dan Tom argues the spread undervalues Johnson. On Action Network, Tom notes Almabayev relies on heavy offensive output and struggles with striking setups for his takedowns, often fighting off the back foot. Johnson has improved his takedown defense since early UFC struggles, defending nearly three-quarters of recent attempts.
Tom's pick: Charles Johnson at plus money, with Central Oregon Daily going further and projecting a Round 2 knockout. The stylistic clash pits Almabayev's chain wrestling and opportunistic chokes against Johnson's volume striking and scrambling. Johnson lands 4.77 significant strikes per minute compared to Almabayev's 2.31, though the Kazakh averages 4.46 takedowns per 15 minutes.
What is Johnson's mindset heading into his first top-10 fight?
Per UFC.com, Johnson views this as his first top-10 opportunity and a chance to right the wrong of his first-round knockout loss to Alex Perez at UFC 324 in January. Matchmaker Mick Maynard offered him the fight less than 24 hours after his Silva victory in March.
Johnson fought Silva while recovering from a broken foot suffered two weeks before the bout, and he said mental carryover from the Perez loss weighed on him throughout that camp. Almabayev ranks seventh in the newly released Meta UFC rankings, making this the highest-ranked opponent of Johnson's career. Johnson told UFC.com he respects Kazakh fighters and expects grappling exchanges, but believes he can win if he is the best version of himself.
For more offbeat fight-week drama, browse our Bizarre News & Florida Man coverage. Johnson has declared he should be competing for a title before rematches, setting up a bold statement opportunity in Baku.
When does the fight start and how can you watch?
Almabayev and Johnson meet on the UFC Fight Night 280 main card at the National Gymnastics Arena in Baku, Azerbaijan. Central Oregon Daily projects a cage walk around 1:10 p.m. ET, while Action Network lists 1:15 p.m. ET. The entire UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs Torres event streams live on Paramount+, with prelims beginning at 9 a.m. ET and the main card at noon ET per UFC.com.