Arthur Rinderknech vs Djokovic Wimbledon odds and prediction
Sports Illustrated projects Novak Djokovic as the heavy favorite when Arthur Rinderknech meets him in Wimbledon's third round on Friday, July 3. DraftKings lists Rinderknech at +610 and Djokovic at -1060, with SI's recommended play on Djokovic -5.5 games at -135 after his straight-sets win over Stefanos Tsitsipas.
Key Takeaways
- Djokovic is priced at -1060 on the moneyline; Rinderknech sits at +610 per DraftKings odds cited by Sports Illustrated.
- SI's pick is Djokovic -5.5 games (-135), not a straight-sets moneyline bet.
- This is the first meeting between the players; Rinderknech is making only his second Wimbledon third-round appearance.
- The match is part of Friday's Wimbledon Round of 32 slate at the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club on grass.
- The total games line is set at 35.5 (over -115 / under -125).
Why is Arthur Rinderknech such a big underdog against Djokovic?
Seven-time Wimbledon champion Novak Djokovic enters the third round as one of the leading candidates to win the 2026 title, fresh off a 6-3, 6-4, 6-2 dismantling of Stefanos Tsitsipas on Wednesday. Arthur Rinderknech, ranked No. 25, is listed as a massive underdog in his second-ever Wimbledon third-round appearance.
The gap in Grand Slam pedigree is stark. Rinderknech has reached the Round of 16 at a major only once — at the 2025 U.S. Open — and an upset on Friday would rank among the greatest performances of his career, according to Sports Illustrated.
At the All England Club, the 30-year-old has three first-round exits and a second-round exit on his resume, though he did reach the third round in 2025. So far in 2026 he has beaten Oliver Tarvet in four sets and Martin Damm Jr. in straight sets.
What do the Wimbledon odds and totals look like?
Sports Illustrated cites DraftKings Sportsbook lines for the matchup. On the moneyline, Arthur Rinderknech is +610 while Novak Djokovic is -1060. The total games line sits at 35.5, with the over at -115 and the under at -125.
For bettors wary of backing a straight-sets win, SI highlights the games spread as a safer angle. Djokovic won by just four games against Yibing Wu in round one, then covered comfortably against Tsitsipas by seven games in round two.
Friday's clash joins a busy Wimbledon Round of 32 schedule at the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club in London, where Bleacher Nation lists grass as the court surface.
Can Rinderknech pull off the upset on grass?
There is no prior head-to-head history to lean on, and SI argues it is hard to build a case for Rinderknech given his limited deep-run experience at majors. Djokovic, meanwhile, is 127-21 on grass in his career and 2-0 at Wimbledon this year.
Djokovic dropped a set to Wu in the opening round but looked increasingly sharp against Tsitsipas. SI also notes his path may be clearer with Carlos Alcaraz (wrist) absent from the draw, fueling talk of another title run after an early Roland Garros exit.
The seven-time champion last won Wimbledon in 2022, finished runner-up in 2023 and 2024, and reached the semifinals in 2025. For more offbeat sports angles, browse our Bizarre World coverage.
What is Sports Illustrated's pick for the match?
SI's recommended wager is Novak Djokovic -5.5 games at -135 on DraftKings. The outlet argues Djokovic could cover that number even in four sets, and that a straight-sets win would likely come by a wide margin.
Peter Dewey's full breakdown, including player histories and the recommended spread, is available at Sports Illustrated. Gambling involves risk; odds can change before Friday's third-round session.