Another Alec Bohm hot streak looks near for the Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies third baseman Alec Bohm is showing underlying signs that another hot streak is near. His July hard-hit rate, exit velocity, and expected slugging sit well above his season marks, even as his .239 batting average lags. With the lineup stuck in an OBP rut, a Bohm surge would matter now.
Key Takeaways
- Alec Bohm’s July hard-hit rate (52.8%), average exit velocity (94.1 mph), and expected slugging (.490) all top his season figures.
- His July slash line (.239/.311/.478) and 114 wRC+ are modestly above average, but a .245 BABIP suggests some bad luck.
- The Phillies own MLB’s worst on-base percentage at .302, so better contact from Bohm would help a sputtering offense.
- A May hot streak (.277/.333/.479) came with weaker batted-ball data than what Bohm is producing now.
Why does Alec Bohm’s July contact quality matter?
According to analysis republished by Yahoo Sports, Bohm has not fully joined teammates Trea Turner and J.T. Realmuto in recent offensive rebounds. Turner has posted an .886 OPS since June 15, while Realmuto has an .818 OPS in July. Bohm’s season OPS still sits at a muted .657.
Since June, Bohm is batting just .244/.298/.421 over 42 games. Yet in July alone, he is hitting the ball harder than at any point this season. His hard-hit rate jumped from 42.5% for the year to 52.8% in July. Average exit velocity rose from 90.6 mph to 94.1, and expected slugging climbed from .378 to .490.
Among 196 hitters with at least 50 July plate appearances, Bohm ranks 21st in hard-hit rate, 12th in average exit velocity, and 29th in expected slugging. Those are elite-company numbers for a bat that has looked merely average on the surface.
Is Bohm simply getting unlucky right now?
Yes, to a degree. Bohm’s July wRC+ of 114 is above league average, but he has done it with a .245 BABIP—well below the roughly .290 league mark for the month. He still grounds into outs often (50.4% since June), which limits damage, though July has brought a slight lift in fly balls and line drives versus June.
He also avoids strikeouts (16.9% K% since June) while rarely walking (5.1% BB%). That profile puts pressure on his batted-ball luck. When the hard contact starts finding grass instead of gloves, the box-score numbers should catch up.
How would a Bohm hot streak help the Phillies’ lineup?
Philadelphia’s team OBP sits at .302—the worst mark in Major League Baseball—and is down 26 points from a season ago, The Athletic reported. The club is 2-5 since the All-Star break with a .278 OBP in that stretch. Analysts note Bryson Stott and Alec Bohm have been “fine, mostly,” while other regulars have cooled.
Bohm already delivered a May surge (.277/.333/.479, 121 wRC+) despite weaker exit data than he is showing now. If he can keep the ball off the ground and ride July’s contact quality, he and a rejuvenated Turner could steady the middle of the order down the stretch.
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