Abubakar Vagaev favored in UFC Abu Dhabi welterweight pick
Abubakar Vagaev is the consensus betting favorite and MMA Junkie's expert pick to defeat Saygid Izagakhmaev in the UFC Fight Night 282 main-card opener Saturday at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi. Analyst Dan Tom projects Vagaev by grinding decision, while DraftKings Network leans over distance and BetMGM instead backs Izagakhmaev.
Key Takeaways
- Abubakar Vagaev (24-4 MMA, 0-0 UFC) debuts as a roughly -250 to -265 favorite over Saygid Izagakhmaev (22-3, 0-1 UFC).
- MMA Junkie's Dan Tom picks Vagaev by grinding decision along the fence.
- DraftKings Network's best bet is the fight going the distance at -185.
- BetMGM's Anatoly Pimentel instead predicts Izagakhmaev by decision on the feet.
- The welterweight bout opens the main card around 12:10 p.m. ET on Paramount+.
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Who is favored when Abubakar Vagaev faces Izagakhmaev?
Oddsmakers clearly prefer the former ACA welterweight champion. FanDuel lists Abubakar Vagaev at -265 with Izagakhmaev at +200, per MMA Junkie. DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM both show Vagaev near -250 and the underdog around +200 to +205.
Vagaev arrives on a three-fight winning streak that includes ACA title work against Albert Tumenov and a win over UFC veteran Michel Prazeres. Izagakhmaev hunts his first UFC win after a November split-decision loss to Nicolas Dalby, following a five-fight streak outside the promotion.
What is the expert pick for UFC Fight Night 282?
Dan Tom expects a grind. He notes Vagaev can chain strikes along the fence but is also willing to use strength and wrestling to wear foes down. Tom thinks Vagaev may steer the fight into the same clinch-heavy territory that drained Izagakhmaev against Dalby, and his pick is Vagaev via decision.
DraftKings Network frames it as a styles clash: Vagaev better on the feet with level changes, Izagakhmaev sharper on the ground with submissions. Neither is projected to finish often here—only five of Vagaev's 24 wins are stoppages, and he has never been submitted—so the site's best bet is the fight going the distance.
BetMGM takes the contrarian route. Anatoly Pimentel picks Izagakhmaev by decision, arguing he can stuff takedowns, keep it standing, and use cleaner, harder striking while both neutralize each other in the grappling.
When does Abubakar Vagaev fight, and how do you watch?
As the main-card opener at UFC Abu Dhabi (UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov), the pair is expected to walk out around 12:10 p.m. ET Saturday from Etihad Arena. The card streams live on Paramount+.
Vagaev, 33, is a Chechnya-born two-time ACA welterweight champ praised by training partner Khamzat Chimaev, though he has not fought since February 2025. Izagakhmaev, 31, a Khabib Nurmagomedov teammate once hyped as a future star, brings a high finish rate and sambo background with Octagon experience—and pressure to rebound.