AAPL stock faces Q3 test after Mac and iPad price hikes
Apple reports fiscal Q3 earnings Thursday after raising Mac and iPad prices, putting AAPL stock—up about 24% year to date and briefly near a $5 trillion market cap—to the test as Wall Street's AI safety play. Investors will weigh strong product forecasts against memory-cost pressure and Tim Cook's final results as CEO.
Key Takeaways
- AAPL stock is up roughly 24% in 2026, leading the Magnificent Seven as investors treat Apple as an AI safety play.
- Wall Street expects EPS of $1.89 on $108.8 billion in revenue, with iPhone sales projected up 20%.
- Rising memory costs prompted Mac and iPad price hikes; analysts warn iPhone margins and Services growth could face pressure later.
- Thursday's results are Tim Cook's last as CEO before John Ternus takes over on Sept. 1.
Why has AAPL stock outperformed Big Tech peers?
Shares have benefited from Apple's limited exposure to the AI spending trade, drawing investors seeking a haven amid a chip and AI sell-off. Yahoo Finance reports the stock briefly pushed Apple's market capitalization toward $5 trillion on Tuesday.
Bloomberg notes Apple shares rose 17% in July and are on pace for their best month in four years, reclaiming the title of the world's biggest company after crossing $5 trillion several times. That performance easily tops Alphabet, the next-best Magnificent Seven name at about 7% year to date. More on market movers sits in our Net Worth & Wealth coverage.
What will Apple report for Q3 earnings?
Consensus calls for earnings per share of $1.89 on revenue of $108.8 billion, up from $1.57 and $94 billion a year earlier, according to Yahoo Finance.
iPhone revenue is projected at $53.5 billion, a 20% jump from $44.5 billion in Q3 2025. Services are seen at $31.3 billion, up 14%, while China revenue is expected to grow 27% to $19.5 billion.
Will Mac and iPad price hikes hurt future margins?
Higher memory and storage costs tied to the global AI build-out pushed Apple to raise Mac and iPad prices. The iPhone has been spared for now, though the company is widely expected to lift next-generation iPhone prices at its September showcase.
Jefferies analyst Edison Lee estimates further memory cost increases in the second half of 2026 could cut overall iPhone gross margins from about 38% to 34.5%. KeyBank's Brandon Nispel argues price hikes could slow unit and user growth, eventually weighing on Services.
Apple's new Apple Upgrade leasing service, announced Tuesday, may ease some of those concerns by keeping customers in the ecosystem. Still, Bloomberg frames Thursday's report as a test of whether the AI safety narrative holds once investors revisit Apple's own hurdles.
Why do these earnings matter for Tim Cook?
Thursday's call will be Cook's last as CEO. Incoming chief John Ternus takes over beginning Sept. 1, inheriting both the stock's safety-play premium and the memory-cost squeeze already reshaping device pricing.