2026 Heisman watch list: Arch Manning, CJ Carr lead top 7
The 2026 Heisman Trophy watch list is headlined by Arch Manning (Texas), CJ Carr (Notre Dame), and Dante Moore (Oregon), with Jeremiah Smith among seven top candidates named by NFL.com analyst Bucky Brooks. Betting markets favor Carr at +750, while Indiana quarterback Josh Hoover sits at 13-1 as a longer shot before college football's Week 0 slate opens Saturday.
Key Takeaways
- NFL.com ranks Arch Manning, CJ Carr, Dante Moore, Jeremiah Smith, Trinidad Chambliss, Darian Mensah, and Julian Sayin as the top seven 2026 Heisman contenders.
- CJ Carr holds +750 odds as the betting favorite; Arch Manning is second at +800 despite drawing the most wagers at several sportsbooks.
- Josh Hoover of Indiana is listed at 13-1 alongside several quarterbacks in the next tier of Heisman odds.
- Quarterbacks have won eight of the past ten Heisman trophies; Jeremiah Smith at 14-1 is the best non-QB option.
- Five Texas universities enter 2026 with legitimate College Football Playoff shots, with Arch Manning central to the state's star power.
Who tops the 2026 Heisman Trophy watch list?
Former NFL scout Bucky Brooks published his preseason rankings for NFL.com's 2026 Heisman watch list as Week 0 approaches. Arch Manning leads the pack at Texas, where Auburn transfer Cam Coleman gives the 6-foot-4 quarterback an explosive vertical threat in Steve Sarkisian's offense.
CJ Carr ranks second at Notre Dame. Brooks notes Carr may not post eye-popping numbers, but his leadership and clutch play on a manageable schedule could carry the Fighting Irish deep into the College Football Playoff. Dante Moore rounds out the top three at Oregon, facing marquee matchups against Ohio State, USC, Michigan, and Washington.
Why is CJ Carr the betting favorite over Arch Manning?
Despite Brooks ranking Manning first, sportsbooks tell a different story. Yahoo Sports reports that Carr opened at +750 as the favorite, with Manning at +800. Notre Dame carries the second-best national title odds at +650 and is the only team with a season win total over 11.5.
Manning, however, dominates the betting handle. Caesars oddsmaker Joey Feazel told Yahoo that Manning leads in ticket count and dollars wagered at 17% of the total pool, making him sportsbooks' worst-case scenario. Manning's 2025 arc explains the split: a rough Ohio State debut sank his odds, but he finished 7-1 in his last eight games with 14 touchdowns and two interceptions.
Where does Josh Hoover fit among 2026 Heisman contenders?
Josh Hoover does not appear among Brooks' top seven, yet the Indiana quarterback remains firmly on the betting radar. Yahoo Sports lists Hoover at 13-1 alongside Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss in the next tier of odds behind the co-favorites. That price point matters: 2025 winner Fernando Mendoza entered last season at 55-1 before capturing the trophy.
Indiana's recent Heisman history gives Hoover a template, even if quarterbacks dominate the market. Eight of the past ten winners have been signal-callers, and every name in Hoover's odds bracket is a QB. For bettors tracking value beyond the headline names, Josh Hoover represents a familiar long-shot profile in a numbers-driven race.
Can Jeremiah Smith break the quarterback Heisman streak?
Jeremiah Smith ranks fourth on Brooks' list and carries 14-1 odds, the best price for any non-quarterback. The Ohio State receiver posted 1,315 yards and 15 touchdowns in 2024, then followed with 1,243 yards and 12 scores in 2025. DeVonta Smith is the only pure receiver to win the award this millennium.
Smith's teammate Julian Sayin ranks seventh, creating a potential vote-splitting dynamic in Columbus. Brooks flags Sam Leavitt of LSU as a dark horse if new coach Lane Kiffin replicates the magic he worked with Chambliss at Ole Miss last season.
Why does the 2026 Heisman race matter beyond the trophy?
The Heisman conversation intersects with broader college football storylines covered in our Future Tech & AI Wonders hub and across Texas media. The Dallas Morning News notes that five Texas schools — Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, SMU, and Houston — enter 2026 with legitimate playoff paths, with Manning among the state's defining stars.
As eight Week 0 games kick off Saturday and full slates follow next week, Brooks' watch list and the betting board will collide with real results. Whether Carr's efficiency, Manning's highlight reel, or a long shot like Josh Hoover gains traction, the 2026 race is already one of the most wagered and debated awards in American sports.